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Friday, February 22, 2013






Week of high drama in Washington

I hear everybody talking about "sequester" – but most  people don't quite get it.  .So I did a little digging and this is what I have found:
(Thanks to the Washington Post Newspaper and Andrew Taylor, Associated Press; for background information:)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/09/14/the-sequester-explained/
Sequester

The “sequester” is  a package of automatic spending cut developed  in the fall of 2011. $1.2 trillion in  cuts are scheduled to begin in 2013 and end in 2021, divided over the nine-year period. Cuts are split between defense spending  and domestic spending.  Funding for current wars, Social security and Medicaid will stay about the same. $109 billion would be cut in 2013.
Where do the cuts come from?
The sequester was triggered when our federal legislators  failed to pass a 1.2$ deficit reduction package in November 2011.

With sequestration, legislators don’t have any discretion with the across-the-board cuts: The cuts are intended to hit all affected programs equally.  The legislators don’t have much control over how cuts are made. The plan is designed to pressure legislators into making a budget deal to avoid the cuts.
Anticipated effect of sequestration on national economy

Some defense officials warn that the cuts will lead to unbalanced reductions. Democratic legislators have warned about the impact on social programs. And defense, health care and other industries that are significantly dependent on federal spending say that major job losses will happen if the cuts end up taking effect.

The government was approaching its debt limit, which needed to be raised through a congressional vote or else the country would default in early August 2011. While Democrats were in favor of a vote without strings attached, Republicans were demanding substantial cuts in exchange for raising the debt limit.

Why have the Republicans suddenly decided that the debt limit should not be raised?  To view the situation in perspective - this graph shows how past presidents dealt with raising the debt limit:

Past presidents and raise in debt ceiling 



President Obama and Congressional leaders finally agreed to allow the debt ceiling to be raised  $2.1 trillion in exchange for the establishment of a committee to oversee the period of budget adjustment.
The deal also includes mandatory spending reductions.

 Party leaders, the White House and most members of Congress supported the debt-ceiling deal, passing the bill in the House by  268-161 vote, with about one-third of House Republicans and half of House Democrats opposing it. It passed in the Senate, 74-26, with six Democratic senators and 19 Republican senators opposing it.

So this is where we are now:  Republicans don’t want to raise taxes to generate revenue, while Democrats are reluctant to make dramatic changes to entitlement programs to achieve savings.

What cuts will actually occur:

2013 Sequester Breakdown

 Here are just a few. Update: Note that these are rough estimates based on numbers put out by OMB before the fiscal cliff deal:  Note that many of these affect jobs and economic growth.
  • Aircraft purchases by the Air Force and Navy are cut by $3.5 billion.
  • Military operations across the services are cut by about $13.5 billion.
  • Military research is cut by $6.3 billion.
  • The National Institutes of Health get cut by $1.6 billion.
  • The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are cut by about $323 million.
  • Border security is cut by about $581 million.
  • Immigration enforcement is cut by about $323 million.
  • Airport security is cut by about $323 million.
  • Head Start gets cut by $406 million, kicking 70,000 kids out of the program.
  • FEMA’s disaster relief budget is cut by $375 million.
  • Public housing support is cut by about $1.94 billion.
  • The FDA is cut by $206 million.
  • NASA gets cut by $970 million.
  • Special education is cut by $840 million.
  • The Energy Department’s program for securing our nukes is cut by $650 million.
  • The National Science Foundation gets cut by about $388 million.
  • The FBI gets cut by $480 million.
  • The federal prison system gets cut by $355 million.
  • State Department diplomatic functions are cut by $650 million.
  • Global health programs are cut by $433 million; the Millennium Challenge Corp. sees a $46 million cut, and USAID a cut of about $291 million.
  • The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is cut by $55 million.
  • The SEC is cut by $75.6 million.
  • The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum is cut by $2.6 million.
  • The Library of Congress is cut by $31 million.
  • The Patent and Trademark office is cut by $156 million.
Does the sequester have to go into effect?  Neither party wants it to go into effect due to the damage it will do to the economy - All that is required to remove it is a simple action of Congress to delete the sequestion bill and it will all go away.  It is legal - quick - and possible.

Friday, February 15, 2013


Notes – February 15, 2013

Lot to be thankful for this Valentine’s week:
...My sweetheart of a wife...with whom I have shared many good adventures all these years. 
...My sons, neighbors, relatives, colleagues, friends, and people remembered.
...My successful surgery a month ago today... and the gradual return of stamina.
...Signs of swelling buds and new sprouts – spring can not be far away... (But, oh, a little more rain would be welcome!)
...The asteroid that flew past us today did not hit us! http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-059  (The meteorite that struck Siberia had no relationship to the asteroid):  http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/sky-fall-meteorites-strike-earth-months-18509801

Antique Valentine
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Frost

By mid February I expect morning frost to be pretty well over - but still each morning, on my way out to pick up the morning newspaper I check the roofs of parked cars...  The evening dew undergoes an amazing transformation each frosty night!  As water cools the molecules slow their motion and the liquid water first becomes more tightly packed, and then change their crystalline pattern as they freeze.  For a gram of liquid water to freeze, 80 physics calories of heat must be given off to permit the physical change to take place.  If the air is cold enough the heat is easily carried away.  (1 teaspoon of water  = 5 grams)  (1000 physics calories = 1 food calorie)
Water Molecule diagram - Covalent bonds involves both atoms attracted to the same electrons

Each water molecule has two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen... The two hydrogen atoms are somewhat closer together at one end of the molecule.  Each water molecule is like a little weak magnet.  The  oxygen end is more positive in charge and the hydrogen end more negative.  In normal liquid water the molecules are drawn together or repulsed due to the weak interaction of the + and – charges...  But the attractions are weak and easily break and re-form in liquid water.  The electrical charges in the water molecules explain why a droplet of liquid water develops the surface tension that causes water drops to form little spheres ... like rain drops and drops from a faucet.  The positive and negative forces of the water molecules are pulling the molecules together into the most compact volume possible.

Surface tension in water is caused by the strong magnetic attraction between individual water molecules

Just before freezing the water molecules undergo a dramatic change.  When water cools down to form ice, the motion of the molecules continues to slows down.  At 4°C (39 °F) liquid water reaches it greatest density, but then if further cooled the bonding pattern of the water molecules changes in away that causes the over all density to become less than liquid water. The molecules begin to form into 6 sided crystals of ice as the freezing point is reached. 

Liquid water involves separate water molecules forming and reforming temporary hydrogen bonds with other water molecules.
This ice field in August has not yet collected enough summer heat to convert the ice crystals of winter into liquid water.
Because normal  water becomes more dense at it cools down, colder water is found at the bottom of a lake or ocean.  But once it starts to become more crystalline as ice forms, the ice is less dense that normal liquid water – and the ice forms on top of the liquid water. If ice was more dense that liquid water lakes and oceans would be frozen solid at lower depths and only the top-most  portion would thaw in the summertime.

Ice floats because it is less dense than liquid water

The frost patterns that I see formed on the cars and plants are due to the positive and negative attractions and repulsions between the chilled water molecules.  if I look closely I can see the same recurring angles and patterns in the ice caused by the 6 sided ice crystals.  ( Think of snow flakes. ) When the sun rises and there is adequate  heat energy to change ice back into liquid water, these bonds will break and the 6 sides molecules will break down to form free molecules again.

Ice crystals the world over form the same predictable angles and patterns - but in an infinite variety of specific arrangements.

How wonderful to think that this whole grand system of ice crystal frost structures that formed in the night will all be transformed with the addition the first morning sunlight providing heat. All this great complexity of detail will be gone in a few moments time.   No water molecules are created or destroyed in the process – Just the addition or withdrawal of heat energy causes the ice to form or disappear. 
Theoretical construct of how the water molecules combine together when ice molecules are formed.

And what about the energy of the sun – is it created or destroyed...?  Massive thermo-nuclear reactions on the sun force H atoms to combine into Helium atoms – releasing huge energy content.... Some small part of that is captured on the revolving earth,  and absorbed by the  soil, rocks and water – and then dissipated back into the blackness of space at night... Where  does that energy go?  Is there a unified  process to recycle or return the lost energy into a reverse of the “Big Bang”?  - I somehow find it comforting to think that there are areas for which we have no knowledge – no clue... The frontier of mystery always keeps beckoning.

All snow flakes are based on 6 sided ice crystals - since there are an infinite number of ways for the water molecules to combine to form the crystals we can safely assume that truly no two snow flakes can be identical.

So the conversion of liquid water to ice is an example of a conceptual model - The details of the process are not something that can be objectively seen but each step has been verified and confirmed by laboratory evidence and measurements.  Its a good example of a scientific theory.  Does that make it unreliable? No!  There are many processes in nature that can not be directly observable that have overwhelming evidence in their support.  In the nature of science this is not a dogma but an idea always open to further investigation and conclusions - its just that all evidence points to this interpretation and no better interpretations have been offered. If a better interpretation could be developed and confirmed by experimentation the scientific community would welcome that new idea. Scientific ideas are always open to reinterpretation.

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SOCIAL COMMENTARY OF THE WEEK: Source: Huffington Post,  International Labor Organization http://www.ilo.org/global/lang--en/index.htm
Why are we so stingy in our support of maternity leave?

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Friday, February 8, 2013


Notes - February 8, 2013

1.   Our great tilted planet is once more rotating into position for N. California to get more heat and light each day. Frosty mornings are becoming less common. Some plants are responding to the increased light by releasing hormones that stimulate flowering or other seasonal changes.  My arch-nemesis 'Acacia' is blooming its pretty yellow flowers that produce the first pollen allergy of the season!  Lovely! Mustard greens in my garden are rapidly coming to blossom...  After a very dry January we are off to a dry February – Today is tantilizingly misty ( at the moment ) ...

Thank goodness for that 23.5 degree tilt - it gives us our seasons!
2.  Today marks three weeks since my neck surgery – and I continue in recovery mode – improving daily... I walk about 40 minutes a day, I have gained back a reasonable amount of weight,  I once more enjoy swallowing and eating, and I am sleeping better at night.  I am not completely off codeine but I use only enough to sleep at night without pain.    Bad news – I am told that I should not plan to drive for another 3 weeks yet... My task now is to increase activity – but to avoid those things that are harmful. "Dont do anything stupid!" "Be patient".

Advertisements are the art of getting buy-in from potential customers - give them something positive with which to identify...
3.  The great human flaw – pretty much found in all cultures – is that of taking in a bit of information about a person or situation and forming a belief... a conclusion ... and then confusing that interpretation with reality.  A classic example that I have seen in many times and places is to “guess" the motivation of a person for acting as they did in a situation.  The real reason becomes less important than the theoretical  explanation developed in the viewers mind.  When we come to believe that our explanation  is correct, we end up defending that view rather than continuing to learn more about the person or situation. Many of us are slow to change even when faced with irrefutable facts.   I see this happening in politics, teachers in classrooms, interpersonal situations, and within families.  If  I am persuasive and believe in my interpretation of the facts, I may feel a great need to convince others to buy-in to my belief as well.  (Convincing others is a way to reinforce my own belief ).   When I was a teen ager I remember driving each day past a farm with a large hand made sign; : "US out of the United Nations".  I wonder what input he based his conclusion on.

There is a certain difference in identify in this situation
One of the saddest aspects of becoming fixed in a particular belief is how it cuts off and limits our ability to connect with the wider reality – Fixed beliefs build walls... Teen age kids tend to form an identity early – based on ethicicity, sports, pro or anti academics, music style, heros and heroines, politics, church groups, supremacy groups, sexual orientation, gangs...  And around many of these kids rigid walls form.  "I am this but not that."  "This is good and that is bad." "I can get away with this, but I will fight for that."  Once an identity is formed it often shapes the future direction and life of that person.  We are slow to change.  Go to a high school reunion and see how many people show the influence of early identity decisions made when they were 16.

This property owner does not welcome outsiders 
Fights erupt, bad feeling emerge, wars are fought over beliefs!  "Which team do you support?"  "What is your religion?" "What is your political party?" "What country or cultural group are you born into?" "What, you like Rachael Maddow (or Glen Beck)!?"

Two words that with very different meaning: Ignorance is the state of not having knowledge about a topic.    (We are each ignorant of many things.) Stupidity is slowness of mind.  Why do you think ignorance is the worst form of violence?
Over my lifetime I have developed firm ideas of who I am and what I value as important in matters of religion, politics, social issues, and the role of science in the development of human knowledge.   Some of my beliefs I hold most ardently.  My goal is to remain open to new ideas.  The challenge is to be able to listen to those with whom I disagree.  The challenge is to avoid wall-building but rather to engage in bridge-building.  I most probabily won't change the beliefs of my opponents but we both gain when we can continue to  talk.

Each of us from an early age builds a sense of who we are and what we stand for...
Do I meet my goal?  No - I build my share of walls when it comes to isolating myself from people of other political and social positions... We are more polarized as a nation than many times in our history.  Most of us tend to watch the evening news programs that reinforce our bias - but news sources themselves cater to polarized audiences.  BBC News America or the news on PBS probabily come the closest to balanced complete news coverage. My challenge and my goal is tobe open as I "grow" my beliefs and opinions.  ...to avoid a closed mind...The big question is how to be open and honest with myself and still hold fast to what  I believe to be life enhancing ideals...

Healthy discussion can be a balancing act - be honest and state your belief - but accepts the right of 'the other' to disagree
What distresses me most is when someone who disagrees with me feels that they can no longer engage in civil discussion and they feel that they are  left with no response but labelling and name calling.  This is a mark of a failed discussion... it leads to the building of walls and the closing off of communication... 

"DON'T MISS" - REFERENCES OF THE WEEK:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/01/us-gun-deaths-sandy-hook_n_2602074.html

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/02/02/1183558/-This-week-in-the-War-on-Workers-State-taxes-fall-heavily-on-the-poorest-people-lightly-on-the-rich

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/01/pro-gun-myths-fact-check

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